Stone size is the strongest predictor of whether a stone passes without intervention. What the published size thresholds mean for passing, pain, and treatment.
Evidence reviewed & updated: 2026-08 — reflects the latest published trials and guidelines.
Stone size is the best single predictor of spontaneous passage: stones under 5 mm pass on their own about 70-80% of the time, 5-10 mm stones pass roughly half the time, and stones over 10 mm usually need intervention. Location matters too — stones in the ureter cause the pain and are the ones that block.
The published pass rates: under 5 mm — roughly 70-80% pass on their own (some studies report 90% for 1-4 mm stones). 5-10 mm — about 50% pass spontaneously. Over 10 mm — spontaneous passage is uncommon, and most require ureteroscopy or shockwave lithotripsy (SWL).
The number that matters is the largest diameter on CT. Stones are also graded by location: ureteral stones cause the classic colic and pass more readily from the distal ureter (near the bladder) than from the proximal ureter.
For stones that do pass, the median time is about 2-3 weeks; most pass within 4-6 weeks. Medical expulsive therapy (tamsulosin) can speed passage for stones 5-10 mm in the distal ureter and reduce the need for intervention.
If a stone hasn't passed in 4-6 weeks with persistent symptoms, intervention is usually offered — waiting longer has little benefit and risks renal colic recurrences and kidney damage from prolonged obstruction.
Regardless of size, these are emergency situations: fever or chills with a stone (possible infected obstructed kidney — can become urosepsis), anuria (no urine at all), intractable vomiting, or pain unrelieved by medication. A blocked kidney with infection is a medical emergency requiring urgent drainage.
Also urgent: stones in a solitary kidney, stones with renal failure, and stones in pregnancy.
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